Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis: Technical and Fundamental Outlook 15/08/2024
Introduction
We have decided to analyze the XAU/USD (Gold) chart today and hopefully try to predict its next move. Certainly, the direction of markets is important if you are trying to profit from price changes and it helps you heading in translation. This piece will address the technical and fundamental concepts, focusing on market structure analysis and mapping out some critical levels while analyzing how recent economic data has weighed into gold pricing.
Technical Analysis
Daily and Intraday Strategy
when the price hits this Fair Value Gap at 2450-2448, traders could think of entering longs around today’s value level/Balance Point at 2452. Stop Loss would be placed at 2445 with a Target of 2475.
15M chart, a short trade could be considered at 2443 stop just above 2450 target = 2425); flat for intraday traders or looking to enter long side offer in low-value EDIT: failed upside break even! Since the intraday market is used for grabbing small price movements, day traders can rely on it to make a quick buck.
15-minute Analysis: Current Market Conditions
In the XAU/USD market, it’s possible to observe an uptrend in a 5-minute timeframe. The price action has led to the development of Fair Value Gaps (FVG) at key levels that are expected to be revisited. One of them is between 2450-2448 and the other one at 2442-44. This unfilled gap is a value area of sorts, meaning that likely the market should be able to hold on and turn hollow the way it came from even if it’s just foreworn.
If the market structure adheres to what has been cited above, then we can expect a move bullish. Watching these levels carefully on the 5-minute will give you some insight into which way people are leaning in the short run and where to potentially enter.
Monthly Time Frame
Monthly timeframe shows the market is definitely bullish by nature. That said, this month imbalance high hit 2479 and considered as the last resistance. This level is important as it could function a strong resistance against any further rise. If the price fails to pass above 2479, we might have a few doubts if it will manage at all or is this only consolidation before with general sentiment reversal.
Seriously, it cannot be stated how crucial this stage is. 9095 is a level that traders must watch and see if the price can hold above this level. If not, the market may need to correct itself (potentially substantially) or at least move sideways for a while.
Weekly Time Frame
From a weekly chart standpoint, everything will be decided by the closing price of this current candle. That can confirm the bullish momentum, signaling that more upside is likely. It would also suggest that any seller is tired – and market should keep the uptrend.
But a failure in closing it higher as weekly could indicate the market losing momentum. This would set the stage for a potential pullback, which could provide more attractive long entry opportunities for traders. The direction of the market for the medium-term boils down to how it closes this week.
Key Entry Points for XAU/USD
Here is the key entry points based on our technical analysis:
| Time Frame | Key Levels | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Market Sentiment |
| Monthly | Imbalance High at 2479 | 2470 | 2460 | 2500 | Bullish |
| Weekly | Close Above 2470 | 2475 | 2465 | 2510 | Bullish |
| Daily | FVG at 2450-2448 | 2452 | 2445 | 2475 | Bullish |
| 5-Minute | FVG at 2442-2444 | 2443 | 2440 | 2455 | Bullish |
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
In technical terms it is an area of imbalance on the market formed by sharp price moves. These gaps could act as either support or resistance, depending on what direction the market is headed in.
The first FVG: is located at 2450/2448. This gap may serve as an area where price would reverse or continue to move up. Should the market trade back into this gap, it may be an excellent place to enter long positions.
Second FVG: Second Fair Value Gap lies at 2442 – 2444. This zone could be just as important in the next market move, BECAUSE of this first gap. Price is currently residing in this gap and therefore, if it were to dip into the same area, potential buyers could be attracted which would trigger a bullish reversal.
Market Structure
Market structure is the general price action characteristics inside a specific time frame. For this analysis the market structure gives us bullish signals on daily and weekly. If the market stays within this framework, it suggests that price should move higher.
After reviewing the latest chart pattern, key levels & price points revealed in this article will be very useful for traders next trading opportunities to make money from such a potential moves in XAU // USD market.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Inflation Data Effect on Gold Prices
This relates to performing comprehensive research on economic data and news that influence market behavior. Gold prices are very reactive to alterations in economic climates including inflation and interest rates.
Understanding CPI Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most widely used price index to measure prices changes in the basket of goods and services purchased by households. One of the Other Primary indicators used to measure Inflation in an economy amongst others.
Gold is an asset that retains value in purchasing power. As inflation rises, the money you have falls because it’s worth less with time and the investor wants so convert some of his valuable paper into gold as it will keep, he´s wealth despite how big African elephants are or if wood and coal ashes turned them to chase him human keeper, dam right they would run!!! Similarly, reduced inflation can lower the inclination of investors to buy gold as a hedge asset thereby reducing its price.
Why CPI Data Matters for Gold
People tend to think of gold as a safe haven asset in times of economic turmoil. High inflation, on the other hand boosts gold prices since as a tangible store of value investors rush to it. Still, weak inflation shown by CPI data may reduce demand for gold as investors believe that such soft price pressures give central banks including the Federal Reserve little reason to ramp up their pace of interest-rate hikes. This would cause the current sell-off in gold, as was seen by market reaction this past week.
U.S. CPI releases and market reaction.
CPI data released just yesterday was lower than expected and pushed market sentiment in the wrong direction. the perception of many in the market now is that with a potential cut by the fed, gold has lost some luster and this triggered a fast sell-off This change in sentiment has made quite an impact on gold prices.
Regardless, the general market sentiment remains optimistic given our technical analysis. With just a couple of weeks left in 2020, traders will be paying close attention to the incoming economic data which would help provide clues about where things might go from here.
FAQ
